Who's Next? A Look at Likely Successors to Benedict

With 1 billion Catholics worldwide, the face of the church is changing.

It's something the cardinal electors may keep in mind when the conclave to elect a new pontiff begins in late March, said Matthew Bunson, general editor of the Catholic Almanac and author of "We Have a Pope! Benedict XVI."

RELATED: Pope Benedict XVI Resigns: The Statement

The 117 cardinals who are eligible to vote for the new pontiff hail from approximately 50 different countries, and they almost always elect one of their own.

Joseph Ratzinger, an intellectual and respected cardinal from Germany, was the frontrunner for the papacy in 2005, Bunson said. When elected, he became Pope Benedict XVI.

This year, there are no strong favorites.

"The door, in a way, is very much open," Bunson said.

FULL COVERAGE: Pope Benedict XVI Resignation

Here's a quick look at some of the possible picks for pope:

Angelo Cardinal Scola, 71, Italy

Scola was named the Archbishop of Milan in 2011, a prominent post in the Roman Catholic church.

"If we had to pick a frontrunner, it's him," Bunson said. "He first is a brilliant theologian and has the intellectual heft to be pope, which is crucial. He has the clear favor of Pope Benedict.

Milan and Venice together have produced five popes in the past century.

Scola is also committed to promoting an understanding across faiths.

He started the Oasis Foundation in 2004, which helps bridge a dialogue between Christians and Muslims.

Helen Alvaré, a professor of law at George Mason University and an advisor to Pope Benedict XVI's Pontifical Council for the Laity, agreed that Scola will be considered papabili -- an Italian word for someone highly qualified for the papacy.

"It would not be surprise me if a Scola, or another great European mind also was determined to be what was needed for the times," she said.

Marc Cardinal Ouellet, 68, Canada

The former Archbishop of Quebec, who now heads the Congregation of Bishops, has a deep knowledge of the global workings of the church, Bunson said.

"He has had a major role in the appointment of the church's leaders around the world," Bunson said.

And he points out that at 68 years old, Ouellet has age on his side.

Ouellet is someone who could have "worldwide reach," Alvaré said.

"The man who is chosen for the position he has is someone who is understood to have the presence and the future of the church in mind," she said.

Peter Cardinal Turkson, 64, Ghana

Turkson, who hails from Ghana, may be in the running.

He is currently the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, a post he was appointed to by Pope Benedict XVI in 2009.

The job has sent Turkson, who speaks six languages, around the world to handle mediations.

"The fact that an African cardinal is a candidate to be elected pope is the statement to the diversity of the church and the remarkable growth around the world," Bunson said.

Turkson discussed the possible of a black pope at a press conference in 2009, following the U.S. presidential election.

"And if by divine providence -- because the church belongs to God -- if God would wish to see a black man also as Pope, thanks be to God," he said.

Francis Cardinal Arinze, from Nigeria, has also been discussed as a potential pope.

Leonardo Cardinal Sandri, 69, Argentina

With a large center of Catholic faithful in Latin America, Sandri could become the first pope from the region.

The 69-year-old, who was born in Argentina to Italian parents, served as a chief of staff in the Vatican, often reading public message when Pope John Paul II was in declining health.

It was Sandri who announced the passing of the pontiff in St. Peter's Square on April 2, 2005.

"He's well-liked around the world," Bunson said.

He currently serves on the Congregation for the Oriental Churches, acting as a liason with Eastern European Catholic churches.

Sandri is fluent in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French.

Angelo Cardinal Bagnasco, 70, Italy

The Archbishop of Genoa has a "reputation for intellectual heft," Bunson said.

Bagnasco, two-time president of the Italian Bishops Conference, has a history of taking a strong stance on church doctrine.

In 2007, he was the subject of death threats after he led a campaign against proposed Italian legislation to grant some legal rights to unmarried couples, including people in same-sex relationships.

Italians form the largest voting block in the College of Cardinals, with 25 percent of the seats, and could help propel Bagnasco into the papacy.

Tarsicio Cardinal Bertone, 78, Italy

The current Cardinal Secretary of State is a strong candidate if the Holy Spirit wants another great European mind at the helm of the church, Alvaré said.

Bertone runs the day-to-day business of the Roman Curia, the Vatican's government.

He has reportedly been criticized by Vatican officials for his handling of issues ranging from sexual abuse in the church to Vatican finances.

In an open letter last year, Pope Benedict XVI acknowledged the in-fighting and pledged his support for his secretary of state.

"I've noted with regret the unjust criticism directed at your person," the pope wrote. "I intend to reaffirm my pledge of personal faith in you."

Although he's held in high regard by the pope, Bunson believes Bertone's age will keep him from the papacy.

"His age is against him," he said, pointing out that Bertone is the same age as his boss when he was elected.

Timothy Cardinal Dolan, 63, New York

While the thought of an American pope has long seemed impossible, Cardinal Dolan should not be ruled out, Alvaré said.

"History is changing," she said. "We've been at this a while here in the states, [although] not anywhere as long as Europe."

Dolan, an affable cardinal well-known by Catholics in the U.S. and abroad, "has been grappling with some of the leading questions that face the church for the future," Alvaré said.

In September 2012, along with comedian Stephen Colbert, he co-led a discussion on faith and humor at Fordham University.

"If I am elected pope, which is probably the greatest gag all evening, I'll be Stephen III," he told the crowd of students.

Despite Dolan's good standing, Bunson said he has some doubts.

"It strikes me as unlikely, simply because we are the world's last superpower," he said of the U.S. "So I think that might factor in."

Read More..

Liver cancer survival time tripled by virus

The virus used in the vaccine that helped eradicate smallpox is now working its magic on liver cancer. A genetically engineered version of the vaccinia virus has trebled the average survival time of people with a severe form of liver cancer, with only mild, flu-like side effects.

Thirty people with hepatocellular carcinoma received three doses of the modified virus – code-named JX-594 – directly into their liver tumour over one month. Half the volunteers received a low dose of the virus, the other half a high dose. Members of the low and high-dose groups subsequently survived for, on average, 6.7 and 14.1 months respectively. By contrast, trials several years ago showed that sorafenib, the best existing medication for this cancer, prolonged life by only three months.

Two of the patients on the highest viral dose were still alive more than two years after the treatment. "It's a very substantial survival benefit," says Laurent Fischer, president of Jennerex, the company in San Francisco developing the treatment under the trade name Pexa-Vec.

Besides shrinking the primary tumour, the virus was able to spread to and shrink any secondary tumours outside the liver. "Some tumours disappeared completely, and most showed partial destruction on MRI scans," says David Kirn, head of the study at Jennerex. Moreover, the destruction was equally dramatic in the primary and secondary tumours.

"This clinical trial is an exciting step forward to help find a new way of treating cancers," says Alan Melcher of the University of Leeds, UK, who was not involved in the study. "It helps demonstrate the cancer-fighting potential of viruses, which have relatively few side effects compared with traditional chemo or radiotherapy," he says. "If it proves effective in larger trials, it could be available to patients within five years."

The fact that the virus appears able to spread to secondary tumours suggests that simply injecting the virus into the bloodstream may be effective. A trial to compare this treatment with injecting the virus directly into a tumour is under way.

Targeted at cancer

The virus has had a gene coding for an enzyme called thymidine kinase snipped out. The enzyme enables the virus to recognise and infect dividing cells. By removing the gene, the virus's developers have reduced the likelihood of healthy dividing cells being infected.

Instead, the virus exclusively attacks cancerous tissue, by targeting two genes that have increased activity in tumour cells. One genes is associated with an epidermal growth factor receptor, which stimulates the cancer to grow. The other is associated with a vascular endothelial growth factor, which enables the cancer to recruit its own blood supply. The virus reduces the activity of both genes, causing the infected cancer cell to wither and die.

What's more, the virus carries extra genes to prod the body's own immune system into action against the cancer. One produces granulocyte colony stimulating factor, a protein that encourages production of extra white blood cells at sites of infection. The other produces a protein not naturally found in humans, called Lac-Z, that earmarks infected cells for destruction.

Fischer says that to date, more than 200 people have received the virus, which has also shown promise against other types of cancer, including those of the kidney and skin. But he warns that not everyone sees a benefit. "We know why patients respond, but not why they don't," he says.

Journal reference: Nature Medicine, DOI: 10.1038/nm.3089

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.

If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.

Read More..

Missing 13-year-old-boy found

SINGAPORE: The 13-year-old boy who went missing on Friday has been reunited with his parents.

Aminiasi Tiritabuanira Shaw, a student of the Singapore American School (SAS), was found on Sunday night.

The school had earlier said that it's believed the boy had left on his own accord after a disagreement with his parents.

In its update on Monday, the school said: "The Shaw family would like to extend their sincere gratitude to the many, many people from the SAS community, the larger Singapore community, and other organizations, schools and groups, who have tirelessly supported the search efforts for Tiri over the past couple of days.

"Please help pass the word that Tiri has been found and is safely in the arms of his family."

- CNA/ir

Read More..

Almost famous: See celebs' early roles

By Henry Hanks, CNN

updated 5:05 PM EST, Thu February 7, 2013

Stars who started out like GoDaddy's geek

Jesse Heiman

Sylvester Stallone

John Travolta

Keanu Reeves

Courtney Cox

Matt LeBlanc

Tina Fey

Rainn Wilson

Megan Fox

Dean Winters

Read More..

Tornado rips through Miss. city, causes major damage

HATTIESBURG, Miss. An apparent tornado tore through Hattiesburg on Sunday as part of a wave of severe storms that downed trees, damaged buildings and caused at least several injuries.

The twister traveled down one of Hattiesburg's main streets and caused what officials described as major damage, officials said, hitting several buildings on the campus of the University of Southern Mississippi. Kyle Hopkins, emergency operations director for surrounding Forrest County, said officials hadn't confirmed injuries. There were reports of several people hurt elsewhere in the state.

"We had a tornado touch down. We have a lot of damage," Hopkins said.

The university released a statement saying that several buildings had been damaged but that no injuries were reported. Campus police have declared a state of emergency and asked anyone not on campus to stay away.

Video by CBS affiliate WHLT-TV shows the heavy damage to the university, including busted windows, wood panels strewn on the lawn and fallen fences.

The storm overturned and damaged vehicles and threw debris around parts of the campus.

To the west, Marion County emergency director Aaron Greer says three injuries have been reported in the community of Pickwick, about seven miles south of Columbia. He says two people were taken to hospitals, but the third didn't have the injury examined.

Greer says one mobile home was destroyed, three other structures have major damage and several have minor damage.

National Weather Service meteorologist Joanne Culin says there have also been reports of injuries in Marion County.

Nasty weather has settled in on much of Louisiana and Mississippi, including tornado or flash flood watches.

The National Weather Service says bad weather is likely to stretch into Fat Tuesday in southeast Louisiana. Jefferson Parish has canceled a Monday night parade.

Read More..

Possible Dorner Sighting Leads to Store Evacuation

A Northridge, Calif., home improvement store was evacuated tonight because of a possible sighting of suspected cop-killer Christopher Dorner, just hours after police announced a $1 million reward for information leading to his arrest.

As helicopters hovered overhead and a command center was established, police searched the Lowe's store and eventually told shoppers they could leave, but could not take their cars out of the parking lot.

LAPD spokesman Gus Villanueva said the major response to the possible sighting was a precaution, but couldn't say whether Dorner was in the area.

The announcement of the $1 million reward today came as authorities in Big Bear, Calif., scaled back their search for Dorner, the disgruntled ex-cop who is suspected in three revenge killings.

"This is the largest local reward ever offered, to our knowledge," Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck said at a news conference today. "This is an act of domestic terrorism. This is a man who has targeted those that we entrust to protect the public. His actions cannot go unanswered."

The money for the reward was pooled by businesses, government, local law enforcement leaders and individual donors, Beck said.

PHOTOS: Former LAPD Officer Suspected in Shootings

The reward comes on the fourth day of a manhunt for Dorner, who has left Southern California on edge after he allegedly went on a killing spree last week to avenge his firing from the police force. Dorner outlined his grievances in a 6,000 word so-called "manifesto" and said he will keep killing until the truth is known about his case.

Irvine Police Department/AP Photo

Manhunt for Alleged Cop Killer Heads to California Mountains Watch Video

Christopher Dorner Search: Officials Search for Ex-officer in the Mountains Watch Video

Dorner's threats have prompted the LAPD to provide more than 50 law enforcement families with security and surveillance detail, Beck said.

Authorities are chasing leads, however they declined to say where in order to not impede the investigation.

Dorner's burned-out truck was found Thursday near Big Bear Lake, a popular skiing destination located 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles.

Investigators found two AR-15 assault rifles in the burned-out truck Dorner abandoned, sources told ABC News.

The truck had a broken axle, which may be the reason he decided to set fire to it, the police sources said.

Full Coverage: Christopher Jordan Dorner

Officers have spent the past couple of days going door-to-door and searching vacant cabins. The manhunt was scaled back to 25 officers and one helicopter in the resort town today, according to the San Bernadino Sheriff's Office.

On Saturday, Beck announced he would reopen the investigation into Dorner's firing but said the decision was not made to "appease" the fugitive ex-cop.

"I feel we need to also publicly address Dorner's allegations regarding his termination of employment, and to do so I have directed our Professionals Standards Bureau and my Special Assistant for Constitutional Policing to completely review the Dorner complaint of 2007; To include a re-examination of all evidence and a re-interview of witnesses," Beck said. "We will also investigate any allegations made in his manifesto which were not included in his original complaint."

Dorner is suspected of killing Monica Quan and her fiancé Keith Lawrence last Sunday in their car in the parking lot of their Irvine, Calif., condominium complex. Both were struck with multiple gunshot wounds.

Quan's father, Randal Quan, was a retired captain with the LAPD and attorney who represented Dorner before a police review board that led to Dorner's dismissal from the force in 2008.

On Wednesday, after Dorner was identified as a suspect in the double murder, police believe he ambushed two Riverside police officers, killing one and wounding the other.

The next day, Randal Quan reported he received a taunting call from a man claiming to be Dorner who told him that he "should have done a better job of protecting his daughter," according to court documents documents.

Anyone with information leading to the arrest of Christopher Dorner is asked to call the LAPD task force at 213-486-6860.

ABC News' Dean Schabner, Jack Date, Pierre Thomas, Jason Ryan and Clayton Sandell and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Read More..

Sooty ships may be geoengineering by accident

GEOENGINEERING is being tested - albeit inadvertently - in the north Pacific. Soot from oil-burning ships is dumping about 1000 tonnes of soluble iron per year across 6 million square kilometres of ocean, new research has revealed.

Fertilising the world's oceans with iron has been controversially proposed as a way of sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to curb global warming. Some geoengineers claim releasing iron into the sea will stimulate plankton blooms, which absorb carbon, but ocean processes are complex and difficult to monitor in tests.

"Experiments suggest you change the population of algae, causing a shift from fish-dominated to jellyfish-dominated ecosystems," says Alex Baker of the University of East Anglia, UK. Such concerns led the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to impose a moratorium on geoengineering experiments in 2010.

The annual ship deposition is much larger, if less concentrated, than the iron released in field tests carried out before the moratorium was in place. Yet because ship emissions are not intended to alter ocean chemistry, they do not violate the moratorium, says Jim Thomas of the ETC Group, a think tank that consults for the CBD. "If you intentionally drove oil-burning ships back and forth as a geoengineering experiment, that would contravene it."

The new study, by Akinori Ito of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, is the first to quantify how shipping deposits iron in parts of the ocean normally deficient in it. Earlier models had assumed that only 1 to 2 per cent of the iron contained in aerosols, including shipping emissions, is soluble in seawater, so the remaining 98 to 99 percent would sink to the bottom without affecting ocean life. But Ito found that up to 80 per cent of the iron in shipping soot is soluble (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, doi.org/kdj). As this soot rapidly falls to the sea surface, it is likely to be fertilising the oceans.

In the high-latitude north Pacific - a region that is naturally iron-poor and therefore likely to be most affected by human deposits - ship emissions now account for 70 per cent of soluble iron from human activity, with the burning of biomass and coal accounting for the rest. Shipping's share will rise as traffic continues to grow and regulations restrict coal and biomass emissions.

Can we learn anything from this unintentional experiment? Baker thinks not. "The process isn't scientifically useful," he says, because the uncontrolled nature of the iron makes it difficult to draw meaningful comparisons.

The depositions are unlikely to be harmful at current levels, he says, but "given the uncertainties, I just don't know how much these iron emissions would have to increase before there was demonstrable harm to an ecosystem, or benefit in terms of carbon uptake, for that matter".

This article appeared in print under the headline "Ships inadvertently fertilise the oceans"

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.

If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.

Read More..

US S&P suit points to ratings industry's role in crisis

NEW YORK: The US government's $5 billion lawsuit against Standard & Poor's for exaggerating mortgage bond ratings in 2007 has cast a pall over the ratings industry and exposed its role in the financial crisis.

S&P competitors Moody's and Fitch find themselves potentially facing penalties after the Justice Department alleged S&P knowingly kept ratings on high-risk mortgage securities high in order to win revenues from issuers.

The Justice Department has not said whether it has the other two ratings agencies in its sights, but Moody's spent much of the week fending off questions about whether it faces similar action following the S&P suit.

The New York Attorney General has meanwhile launched an investigation into all three companies over their ratings prior to the 2008 crisis, sources close to the matter told AFP.

S&P parent McGraw-Hill's shares plunged 27 percent after the suit was filed, and Moody's dropped 22 percent for the week, underscoring the market's worry that the crackdown on S&P may be just the tip of the iceberg.

"Investors have been selling those stocks aggressively this week and keep doing so out of fear that the situation with the Department of Justice could get a lot worse in the future," said Wedbush Securities analyst Michael James.

"They think there is probably more bad news to come."

The government's case argues that S&P knowingly placed triple-A ratings on billions of dollars worth of mortgage-based financial securities even as the US housing market collapsed, misrepresenting their true credit risk.

Many of the top-rated issues cited in the suit were in default within one year or less.

S&P exaggerated the ratings in part to please clients and keep issuer revenues high, the suit alleges.

US Attorney General Eric Holder called S&P's conduct "egregious", saying "it goes to the very heart of the recent financial crisis".

S&P has dismissed the lawsuit as "meritless" and said it plans to vigorously contest the claims.

The litigation, which reportedly came after settlement talks failed, poses a huge financial challenge to S&P and McGraw-Hill.

Justice Department officials said they intend to press for at least $5 billion in civil penalties to match the losses suffered by investors on the securities.

S&P is also being sued by 13 states, adding to the potential damages.

The attorney general of California cited two large institutional investors, the California Public Employees Retirement System and the California State Teachers Retirement System, which lost approximately $1 billion on the high-rated mortgage bonds.

A California statement said the suit claims triple damages.

To put those figures in context, McGraw-Hill earned $911 million in all of 2011.

Many were wondering if or when the government will take action against Moody's. A multi-billion dollar suit could devastate that company as well: on Friday, Moody's reported 2012 earnings of $690 million.

Jacob Frenkel, a former federal criminal prosecutor now in private practice with Shulman Rogers, said S&P could possibly settle the case in the range of "hundreds of millions of dollars".

But he said that the terms of a settlement -- what the company admits to, in addition to paying fines -- are crucial.

A key question concerns whether the government insists on S&P admitting liability, which could expose the firm to additional suits by investors in the securities it rated, Frenkel said.

Charles Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance, thinks the government could have a hard time proving its case against S&P.

"Unless you can show the opinion was reached in an intentionally reckless way, it's pretty hard to prove," Elson said.

Frenkel said the language in the complaint suggests the government could have pursued a criminal case against S&P.

That would raise the stakes: the 2002 US criminal conviction of former accounting giant Arthur Andersen in the aftermath of the Enron scandal eventually led to the firm's demise.

But Frenkel said the government is mainly focused on "integrity in the ratings process".

"The government would prefer to win a civil case than lose a criminal case," he said, "particularly where there is a concern about vaporizing the company."

- AFP/al

Read More..

Almost famous: See celebs' early roles

By Henry Hanks, CNN

updated 5:05 PM EST, Thu February 7, 2013

Stars who started out like GoDaddy's geek

Jesse Heiman

Sylvester Stallone

John Travolta

Keanu Reeves

Courtney Cox

Matt LeBlanc

Tina Fey

Rainn Wilson

Megan Fox

Dean Winters

Read More..

Mass. boy dies of carbon monoxide in running car

BOSTON An 11-year-old Massachusetts boy died of carbon monoxide poisoning Saturday after being overcome as he sat in a running car to keep warm, while his father was shoveling snow to get the car out of a snow bank.

Boston Fire Department spokesman Steve MacDonald said the boy was helping his father shovel the snow in the Dorchester neighborhood but got cold, so his father started the car and the boy got inside the vehicle. MacDonald said the car exhaust was covered by a snow bank, causing the fumes to collect in the car.

"I don't know how long the boy was in the car, at some point the father was still working and was unaware of the boy's condition," said Boston firefighter Octavius Rowe, who lives nearby and went to help. "So very, very unfortunate."

When the boy was overcome by the fumes, the father went into respiratory arrest and emergency workers took both to Boston Medical Center, officials said. The boy was pronounced dead at the hospital. No names were released.

Rowe said he was at home when he noticed a commotion in the street. He went outside and saw the father leaning against a pile of snow, Rowe said.

"I came over to the car where it all started and the father appeared to have lost consciousness," Rowe said. "He was semi-conscious and laying on the snow bank, and I wanted to first get him off that cold surface."

Rowe said he put the man on a flat surface to revive him. He said the boy apparently had been taken into an apartment building where a woman was administering CPR. Paramedics from the fire department and Emergency Medical Services arrived and provided oxygen to the father to stabilize him and tried to engage him in conversation to keep him alert.

"He was responsive so we were able to, at least, get him up, get him to the stairs. He did say, `My son, my son,' so he knew his son was involved or was in distress," Rowe said. "We were talking to him. He was moaning, but the only discernible thing that he said was `My son."'

Rowe said his understanding was that a snow plow had come up the street and had pushed snow back onto the bank, which then impacted the car's exhaust pipe.

Read More..